Investment, Stock News

Wall Street Conventional Wisdom: Zero Taxable Gain Investing

“First thing Monday morning I’m going to march into my boss’s office and demand a pay cut so that I’ll be in a lower tax bracket next year.”

Of course that’s ridiculous, but isn’t it about the same as the financial community’s “Conventional Wisdom” (CW) for year-end tax planning? What about the long-term nature of investing, or the merits of that investment they felt so strongly about in July? What are their motivations, and what discipline thought up these strategies in the first place?

Clearly there are many questions that require answers, but as investors, it should be crystal clear that the object of the investment exercise is to make money… just as much as possible, quickly, legally, and within a low risk environment. The faster it comes in, the more effectively it can be compounded. Otherwise, wouldn’t the “CW” be to find as many downers as uppers so that there are no tax consequences? Wouldn’t Zero Taxable Gain Investing be the only “smart” investment strategy? A December, 2004 New York Times Money Section article actually suggested that Investment Professionals had an obligation to lose money for clients in order to reduce the tax burden.

Your Financial Professional’s perspective may produce smart tax advice but only professional investors (not accountants, attorneys, stockbrokers, financial planners, advisors in general) should be called upon for acceptable investment advice. CPAs may look smarter if you have a lower tax liability, but many of them go too far with a calendar year focus that ignores the realities of an emotional and cyclical investment environment. Take last year’s Merck for example. It has nearly doubled in Market Value since you were told to sell it last November… who’da thunk it! Why didn’t you buy more (of this and many other high quality losers) instead of selling? Fortunately, not all professionals are into losing money. In fact, in nearly thirty years of dealing with hundreds of Accountants and other advisors, not even a handful have suggested that clients should take losses on fundamentally sound securities, Equity or Fixed Income. Just think if you had taken your dot.com profits in ‘99, purchased the downtrodden profit making companies of the time, and paid the ugly taxes. The value companies didn’t crash. They’ve rallied for nearly seven years!

The key issue in considering a capital loss is the economic viability of the investment… not your tax situation! A key element of The Working Capital Model (for investment portfolio management) is to eliminate the weakest security in a portfolio every time the Market Value of the portfolio establishes a significantly new “All Time High” profit level (an ATH). My definitions may be different than those you are used to: (1) Profit = Total Market Value – Net Portfolio Investment, (2) A “weak” security is a stock that is no longer rated Investment Grade by S & P, or no longer traded on the NYSE, or no longer dividend paying, or no longer profitable. Income securities whose payout has fallen to way below average (or risen to an unsustainable level) could also be culled at an ATH. Securities that have fallen considerably in Market Value for no apparent reason (other than recent news or changing interest rate expectations) are referred to lovingly as “Investment Opportunities”. This is what you look for while trying to reinvest your profits… like last year’s MRK. By the way, switching from the strong asset class to the weaker one as a “hedging strategy” or vice versa (as a greed motivated speculation) is simply an attempt at “market timing”, not a “sophisticated” or “savvy” adjustment to your asset allocation. Asset Allocation is always a function of personal factors and never a function of asset class (Equities and Income Generators) directional speculation.

So what happens if a new portfolio ATH is achieved in February or August instead of in November or December? (Note that the financial community only preaches tax loss strategies during the last calendar quarter.) Should you unload all the weak issues at the same time, even those purchased just a few months ago? Management of your portfolio requires the disciplined application of consistent rules and guidelines, and every manager will develop his or her own style. But in a high quality, properly diversified, income generating portfolio, (1) the number of weak issues will generally be small and (2) the probability of escaping with only a minimal loss very real. Keep in mind two basic investment axioms: There is no such thing as a bad profit, regardless of the tax implications; and no matter how you may rationalize, there’s no such thing as a good loss. So, sure, if a loss should be taken due to an ATH in February, bite the bullet on the one security (only one) with the declining fundamentals (A Merrill Lynch/CNN/CFP opinion is not a fundamental.) If there are none, good job!

Profits are the holy grail of investing. Few people will admit just how infrequently they have experienced them or, conversely, just how frequently they have watched them disappear beneath the waves of a correction. (Like gamblers retuning from Vegas… no one ever seems to lose!) Similarly, most financial professionals will counsel their charges to let their profits run, particularly around year-end. Surely, speaketh the CW prophets, these profits will hang around until next year, thus deferring those terrible taxes! (Worked real well at year-end ‘99, you’ll recall.) Don’t think for a moment that anyone knows what will happen this time around the rally pole, particularly in those ridiculously priced ETFs, which are put together with the same kind of spit and duct tape used for the dot.coms. Always take your profits too soon, because you can’t get poor that way!

First thing Monday morning I’m going to: (1) Call my accountant to tell him that I’m going to help him reduce his tax burden by not paying him, (2) continue to view the Investment process in cyclical rather than calendar terms, (3) limit my tax liability by how I invest, not by taking unnecessary losses, (4) continue to make as much money as possible, as quickly and safely as possible, and (5) contact the media, my political representatives, and anyone else I can think of that will help in the fight to abolish the taxation of all investment and retirement income.

Personal Finance – Most Common Investment Plans

Fifty years ago, the average worker didn’t need to worry about saving for his retirement. If he stayed with the same company for 20, 25 or 30 years, he was guaranteed a pension, in addition to a monthly social security check form the United States government, and medical benefits under Medicare. Still, those same workers generally saved about 10% of their paychecks for a rainy day, leaving many with a tidy retirement fund.

Today’s workers aren’t offered those same retirement benefits, yet, many fail to put even 5% of their annual salary into a 401K retirement plan, let alone save additional funds on top of that. Today’s worker, (no matter how much, or how little they make), must become a savvy investor in order to guarantee a comfortable future.

Whether you can put aside a month, or 0, learning a few investment basics is crucial in order to get the best future bang for your current buck. Here are a few of the most common investment opportunities available to both the high and low-end investor:

Stocks:

Stocks, or equities, are a way to invest a small portion of ownership in a specific company. The number of shares that you buy, in proportion to the number available, determines how much of the company you actually own. Known as the best opportunity for long-range growth, stocks can be a risky short-term investment.

There are three types of stocks available for purchase:

-Large-cap stocks, from well-established companies

-Small-Cap stocks, represent lesser-known companies with fast-growth potential

-Mid-Cap stocks, lie between the large-cap and small-cap risk range

Bonds:

Basically an IOU from a company or government, bonds are a relatively safe investment. Bonds are issued as a way for corporations and government agencies to raise money quickly. Bonds come with a guarantee that the purchaser will get back their original investment, with a set amount of interest at a specific date. These fixed-income investments come in several categories, or grades:

-AAA, AA or A offers relatively low risk

-BBB, are medium grade

-Bonds lower than BBB have higher risk of default

-Junk Bonds, offer the highest risk, and are often worth nothing by their maturation date

Cash Equivalents:

This is a type of short-term investment that is easily converted into cash, such as Treasury or T-Bills ( a government note offering low interest) and money market accounts, Although a safe investment, their return can be rather low.

Mutual Funds:

This popular investment is a simple way to expand your investment portfolio, by allowing investors to pool their money in a collection of stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents, in order to make the most profit at the least risk. The rationality with this type of investment is, if one fund does poorly, another will make up for the loss.

Investing money wisely takes a little research and experience, but today’s options make investing an option for just about everyone – no matter how much or how little they have to invest.

Forex News Trading Tip: How to Trade the Fomc

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates is one of the most powerful market movers in the forex market and when the markets move traders trading the news have the opportunity to make money.

The FOMC sets the discount rate or federal funds rate and because interest rates are set higher to induce foreign investment and therefore fight inflation during times of prosperity and lower to increase spending during recessions they are one of the main factors influencing the strength of the dollar.

Economic indicators play a huge role in the forex trading especially for traders who approach the market through fundamental analysis and trade the news. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision is one of the most influential indicators for the US dollar and you can be sure after the news is released there is going to be volatility in the markets and volatility is what traders thrive on.

I have heard many ‘traders’ say never to trade the news and especially the FOMC. Although the FOMC interest decision is a news event and can fall under the category of through fundamental analysis I am a technician and I believe that charts always price everything in. However I guarantee the market does not know what exactly the Feds comments and decision will be, therefore it is not priced in yet and this will cause the markets to react when they do find out. This is confirmed by the change in price after the decision and the continuation in the days following.

I have been trading the Fed for eight years now and yes I have been burnt in the past and that is exactly how I have come to learn how to trade it properly. The most common pattern to trade the Fed is the whip-saw. But do not be fearful of it, embrace it. Here is how it happens, first there is a large spike one direction (traders come in and follow that direction)followed by a large spike in the opposite direction (those same traders now sell their first position at a loss and reverse their position – this is when I take a position in the direction of the original move)followed by an extended move back in the direction of the original spike (all the emotional trades are left sick to their stomachs) and I am left holding a very nice position setting myself up to capture a larger than average market move.

If this pattern does not play out exactly as outlined I stand on the sidelines and do not trade at all. Because the markets are moving fast in the period following the FOMC interest rate decision I am watching a very short time frame, mainly the one and five minute charts.